What we analysed
- 3,437 anonymized candidates
- English score, maths score, and total score
- Candidates ranked by total score
In simple terms, we took one large cohort and asked: how many children from each birth month appeared in the highest-scoring group?
Because the exact cut line can include tied scores, we show two ways of counting. This helps parents compare like-for-like when they see numbers shared in WhatsApp groups, forums, or tutoring chats.
To estimate a realistic "competitive" band, we used two clear methods:
- Way 1: count exactly the top 190 scores.
- Way 2: also include children who are tied on the same score as the child at rank 190 (score 239). That gives 208 children.
If you have seen different percentages online, this is usually why. People are often using different ways of counting, but not clearly saying so.
What the birth-month pattern actually says
Yes, some months came out a bit higher than others. But the difference is not massive, and it should not be read as "my child can" or "my child cannot".
When we say a month is, for example, 7.77%, it means: in this sample, about 8 out of every 100 children born in that month landed in the competitive score band used for this analysis.
- Using Way 1 (exact top 190), the highest month was 7.06% and the lowest was 2.75% (difference: 3.97 points).
- Using Way 2 (including tied scores), the highest month was 7.77% and the lowest was 3.09% (difference: 4.68 points).
So there is a pattern, but it is not fate. Birth month is one background factor, not the full story. Preparation quality still matters a lot.
Month-by-month percentages (easy table)
This table uses Way 2, which is the version many parents expect to see: everyone with total score 239 or above (208 children).
How to read it: if a month shows 6.95%, that means roughly 7 in 100 children from that month reached this competitive score band in this sample.
| Birth month | Estimated % in competitive band |
|---|---|
| May | 7.77% |
| December | 7.34% |
| August | 7.06% |
| October | 7.04% |
| September | 6.95% |
| July | 6.41% |
| November | 6.23% |
| March | 5.19% |
| January | 5.15% |
| February | 4.98% |
| June | 4.89% |
| April | 3.09% |
Important: this is a helpful guide from one anonymized sample, not an official admissions probability table. Use it for context, not panic.
Older months vs younger months (quick view)
Parents often hear "older children always have a big advantage." This sample shows a smaller, more moderate gap.
When we group Sep-Dec together and Jan-Aug together, the older group is a little higher in this sample:
- Way 1 (exact top 190): 6.35% vs 5.05%
- Way 2 (including tied scores): 6.91% vs 5.56%
So yes, there is some age-related trend here. But it is not so large that it should decide your child's confidence, effort, or future options.
What this means for your family this week
Do not plan around fear. Plan around what your child can improve now. The strongest families are not the ones with the "perfect" birth month. They are the ones who keep a calm, consistent routine.
3 actions to do this week
- Run one timed English task (20 minutes), then spend 10 minutes reviewing it together.
- Pick 5 useful words and make your child use all 5 in one short writing task.
- Track one repeated mistake (for example punctuation or rushed endings) and check if it improves next session.
If you need structure, use the revision timetable guide and keep one writing block from the low-stress writing routine. This gives you progress you can actually see week by week.
Final thought
If you are thinking, "My child is April-born. Are we already behind?", you are not alone. A kinder and more useful response is this: these numbers show trends, not destiny. Your child is not competing with their birthday - they are competing with their preparation. Focus this week on quality writing, calm timed practice, and fixing one repeated error. Then build from there.
Download the dataset
Anonymized workbook used in this post
You can download the same anonymized file used for the charts and table above.
This is provided for educational analysis and parent planning, not as an official admissions publication.
FAQ
Does this prove birth month decides QE outcomes?
No. It shows trends in one anonymized sample, not certainty for any one child.
Why are there two sets of percentages?
Because there are two valid methods. Strict top-190 gives one set. Including ties at the cutoff score gives another.
Should I change schools based on this?
No. Use this as context only. Base decisions on your child's progress, school fit, and sustainable preparation.
What should I prioritise next?
Consistent timed practice, better review habits, stronger vocabulary use, and clear writing structure.
Useful next pages
Check route pages and key school links in one place.
School-route context for nearby selective options.
A practical parent method to avoid outdated assumptions.
Weekly planning guides and downloads in one place.